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Global Market Trends
Asset-class drivers and indicative levels
The table below shows current levels and performance metrics for major asset classes and indices. Performance is calculated as percentage change from 1 month, 6 months, and 1 year ago. Percentile ranking shows where current price level stands relative to historical price levels. Instruments are ranked by 1-month returns from highest to lowest.
Quick view: 1-month and 1-year returns, ranked best to worst on 1M.
| Instrument | 1M Perf | 6M Perf | 1Y Perf | 1Y %ile | 5Y %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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Key Takeaways from the Latest Data
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Performance Table
Equity
Fixed Income
Currencies
Gold
Oil
Bitcoin
Volatility
Indicative figures (one decimal). 1M returns match the performance table above.
Equity Markets Analysis
Market Drivers: Data-dependent Fed into the 17–18 June meeting, AI/capex guidance, and the early-June data cluster (manufacturing PMIs, euro CPI, May payrolls).
Recent Performance: Gold 1M +4.2% leads the table. Nasdaq 100 1M +3.8%, 6M +14.2%, 1Y +24.5%; S&P 500 1M +2.5%, 6M +10.8%, 1Y +19.3%; Nikkei 225 1M +2.1%, 6M +11.4%, 1Y +18.7%. STOXX Europe 50 1M -0.6%; CSI 300 1M -1.8% (8 June 2026 proxies).
Mid-term Outlook: Leadership can stay narrow (mega-cap / AI) while Japan and Europe offer more idiosyncratic beta; payrolls and PMIs set the tone for June risk appetite.
Fixed Income Markets
Market Drivers: Fed on hold at 3.5–3.75%, rising term premium, and the 1–5 June labor/inflation prints ahead of the June FOMC.
Recent Performance: iShares IG (LQD) proxy: 1M +0.8%, 6M +2.4%, 1Y +4.6% (performance table, 8 June 2026). Nominal 10-year Treasury yields remain elevated near ~4.6% (vendor snapshots; intraday prints vary).
Mid-term Outlook: Duration remains sensitive to payrolls and euro-area CPI; quality IG can still offer carry if volatility stays contained.
Currencies
Market Drivers: U.S.–global rate differentials (10Y near ~4.6%), risk-on equity momentum, and energy/geopolitical headlines into June.
Recent Performance: DXY in a ~98–100 band on public FX feeds early June—choppy as higher U.S. yields competed with firm global equities. Yen tracked domestic risk appetite (Nikkei 1M +2.1%); euro tracked post-2 Jun CPI messaging.
Mid-term Outlook: Two-way: haven demand can bid USD on oil or growth scares; a soft payrolls print or dovish repricing can trim the dollar vs. cyclical FX.
Precious Metals
Market Drivers: Real rates near cycle highs, central-bank demand, USD, and geopolitical risk premia.
Recent Performance: 1M +4.2%, 6M +16.8%, 1Y +28.4% on this page’s gold proxy (8 June 2026). Spot levels remain elevated vs. pre-2025 ranges; correlation vs. S&P is near neutral (0.1 on our matrix).
Mid-term Outlook: Structural bid can persist, but near-term pullbacks are possible if real yields stay firm or USD rebounds into payrolls week.
Energy Markets
Market Drivers: OPEC+ policy, Middle East supply risk, Wed 3 Jun U.S. crude inventory data, and the pass-through to headline CPI.
Recent Performance: WTI held at elevated levels after the Q1–Q2 supply-shock episode (press narratives cited moves from ~$78 toward ~$100+). Late-May prints consolidated in the ~$95–100 area on futures vendors ahead of inventory releases.
Mid-term Outlook: Supply shocks can still dominate; high oil keeps headline inflation sticky and complicates the Fed’s June cut calculus.
Cryptocurrency Markets
Market Drivers: Spot ETF flows, liquidity, rates, and equity beta into the June payrolls window.
Recent Performance: 1M -5.4%, 6M +22.1%, 1Y +45.8% (performance table, 8 June 2026). Rolling correlation vs. equities is elevated (0.6 S&P, 0.7 Nasdaq on our matrix)—crypto is trading as a liquidity-sensitive risk asset.
Mid-term Outlook: High beta: can re-rate on risk-on weeks but remains vulnerable to rates and equity drawdowns.
Market Volatility
Market Drivers: Fed path, 1–5 June PMIs and payrolls, earnings dispersion, and geopolitical shocks.
Recent Performance: Spot VIX in the high-teens to low-20s late May (indicative ~17–19 on index snapshots), well below spring highs near ~29 on the same vendor series. Equity realized vol stayed subdued while bond vol (MOVE) remained more reactive to yield moves.
Mid-term Outlook: Equity vol can stay “medium” into payrolls; size hedges for a jump if NFP or CPI surprise vs. consensus.
Asset Correlation Matrix
1-year rolling correlations
The table below shows the correlation coefficients between major asset classes and indices based on recent price movements. Values close to 1 indicate strong positive correlation, values close to -1 indicate strong negative correlation, and values near 0 indicate little or no correlation. Data is calculated using trailing 12 months of daily price data.
Quick view: how each asset correlates with the S&P 500 (1Y rolling).
Correlation Strength Legend:
| S&P 500 | Nasdaq 100 | Gold (USD/oz) | US 10Y Yield | Bitcoin (BTC) | Nikkei 225 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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Asset Cross-Correlation Matrix
Macro Trends & Correlation Shifts
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Risk & Sharpe Ratio
2-year risk & performance metrics (September 2024 to September 2026)
2-Year Risk & Performance Metrics (September 2024 to September 2026). The Sharpe ratio measures risk-adjusted return. A higher Sharpe ratio indicates better return per unit of risk. Max Drawdown shows the largest peak-to-trough decline, and VaR (Value at Risk) represents the potential loss at 95% confidence level. All metrics are calculated using 2 years of daily data for robust statistical analysis. Volatility is annualized from daily returns, Sharpe ratio uses a 2% risk-free rate, and VaR is calculated at 95% confidence level. Instruments are ranked by Sharpe ratio from highest to lowest.
Quick view: 2Y Sharpe and max drawdown, ranked best to worst.
| Instrument | 2Y Return (%) | 2Y Volatility (%) | 2Y Sharpe Ratio | 2Y Max Drawdown (%) | 2Y 95% VaR (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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2-Year Risk & Performance Metrics (September 2024 to September 2026)
Economic & Events Calendar
Stay informed of key upcoming economic events and data releases
Stay informed of key upcoming economic events and data releases that may impact global markets.
Week-ahead events grouped by day (GMT+8). Full details on desktop.
| Date | Time (GMT+8) | Event/ Data Release | Country | Previous | Consensus | Actual | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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Focus: 19–21 August 2026 (GMT+8)—euro-area CPI confirmed at 2.9%; crude inventories +4.405M; FOMC minutes released; Philly Fed 47.4 and claims 206K; S&P Global flash PMIs Fri (pending at last update). Actuals filled where released.
Economic & Events Calendar
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