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Soft landing vs stagflation-lite, Europe after the ECB pause, and Asia dispersion — from our Hong Kong desk.

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This week from the desk

Macro snapshot · Hong Kong time · week of 28 Jul 2026

US soft landing vs stagflation-lite

Soft landing remains base (~50%), but services CPI and oil keep stagflation-lite live (~30%). A patient Fed hold at 3.5% to 3.75% is not a cut pivot—size gold and energy as explicit hedges.

Europe growth split

After the 23 Jul ECB pause (deposit 2.25%), Europe is a stock-picker’s market: banks and energy over broad STOXX. STOXX +2.8% 1M / +20.6% 1Y; hike optionality stays if energy re-accelerates.

Cross-asset leaders

Hang Seng +9.6% 1M leads; STOXX +2.8% 1M. S&P +0.2% 1M vs Nasdaq −5.1% 1M; Gold +0.3% 1M / +22.6% 1Y. Duration soft (TLT −3.8% 1M, LQD −2.0% 1M).

Position for soft landing with explicit stagflation hedges. Keep U.S. quality and selective Europe/Asia (STOXX, Hang Seng); treat ECB–Fed asymmetry as an FX and rates overlay.

Europe growth split · full analysis US soft landing vs stagflation · full analysis

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