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Post–Sep FOMC: cut delivered — dots, path pricing, and term premium from our Hong Kong desk.

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Post–Sep FOMC: cut delivered—dots and path pricing still set the tape, with flash PMIs, claims, and durables this week. Bitcoin still leads 1M; fiscal term premium stays the long-end dial. Premium and consultations remain available when you need them.

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This week from the desk

Macro snapshot · Hong Kong time · week of 23–25 Sep 2026

Post–Sep FOMC

25bp cut delivered—the live story is the SEP / dot plot and path mispricing; this week’s cluster is flash PMIs, claims, and durables (GMT+8).

Fiscal & term premium

Long-end supply still matters: size Fed-path duration (front end/belly) separately from fiscal-path caution on 30Y.

Cross-asset leaders

Bitcoin +4.2% 1M still leads; Nikkei +2.3% 1M and Nasdaq +0.8% 1M are firm. S&P −1.0% 1M; Hang Seng −2.0% 1M; Gold −3.1% 1M; STOXX −4.8% 1M. LQD −1.8% 1M.

Cut delivered—keep soft-landing base with path risk live. Front-end duration tactical; long bonds cautious on fiscal/term premium; gold as the hedge; quality equities as core.

Post–Sep FOMC · full analysis US fiscal & term premium · full analysis

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